International rating agency Fitch forecasts an increase in Georgia’s current account deficit in 2026, according to the latest country review published by the organization. Fitch affirmed Georgia’s sovereign credit rating at BB with a stable outlook, while upgrading its 2026 economic growth projection from 5.3% to 6.5%.
The agency noted that rising global oil prices have prompted a reassessment of Georgia’s external balance. Higher oil prices increase pressure on the country’s import bill, negatively affecting the current account deficit.
In 2025, Georgia recorded a historic improvement in its external position: the current account deficit shrank to 2.6% of GDP, mainly driven by a surge in car re-exports. Fitch emphasized, however, that this improvement was largely temporary, as sectors like used car re-exports are not supported by domestic production.
“We expect the current account deficit (CAD) to widen to around 5% of GDP in 2026,” Fitch stated, noting that last year’s sharp improvement—from 5.3% of GDP in 2024—was not fully sustainable.
Fitch’s updated analysis highlights both Georgia’s strengthening economic growth and the renewed external vulnerabilities linked to global commodity prices and temporary export dynamics.
