Two weeks ago, we raised our growth forecast. With data continuing to come in above expectations, we are raising it again – to 7.4% for the full year- TBC Capital review reads.
 

Similar to Uzbekistan, we have long highlighted features of structural stability in the Georgian economy, which we refer to as “delta-neutral”, reflecting the presence of offsetting channels across many, though not all, scenarios;
 

Downside spillovers from the Middle East conflict have been relatively contained, concentrated in the hospitality sector, while upsides have grown more pronounced – chief among them, commodity exports lifted by surging global prices;
 

Though Georgia is a net oil importer, the country receives substantial inflows from commodity exporters, often broadly offsetting net oil exposure, with oil re-exports also emerging since late 2025;
 

Exports have likely been the single largest driver of growth, unlike in 2025, since coincident indicators point to no significant acceleration in spending as of April;