According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's [EBRD] latest Regional Economic Outlook report, the bank forecasts that average economic growth in its regions of operation will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before recovering to 3.6% in 2027. In the context of Georgia, the EBRD improves its 2026 economic growth forecast by 0.5% and expects 6%.
"Georgia's real GDP grew by 7.5% in 2025, led by services, as tourism remained an important driver of economic performance. Income from inbound travel was equivalent to 12.3% of GDP in 2025, though growth in the sector was nearly flat in the first quarter of 2026. On the demand side, private consumption was underpinned by solid real wage growth and strong credit expansion, while capital investment contracted for the first time since 2021.
Growth accelerated further to an estimated 9.1% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Inflation has exceeded the National Bank of Georgia’s 3.0% target since March 2025, reaching 5.9% year on year in April 2026. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 2.3% in 2024 to 1.4% of GDP in 2025 on the back of robust revenue growth and under-execution of capital spending.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 34.4% in 2025, supported by strong nominal GDP growth and a stable exchange rate. The current account deficit declined from 5.3% in 2024 to an historical low of 2.6% of GDP in 2025. Gross international reserves increased to USD 6.5 billion in April 2026, providing around four months of import cover. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 6.0% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027. The implementation of flagship investment projects in the real estate, transport and renewables sectors could foster even higher growth.
However, the conflict in the Middle East may damp economic momentum by way of lower tourism revenues and higher costs for imported energy", - reads the report.
