Global trade and fiscal debt concerns are feeding into a flight to safer assets, sharpening gold's edge as a haven from risk, prompting analysts in a Reuters poll to sharply raise their forecasts.
The poll of 40 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,220 per troy ounce of gold for this year, up from $3,065 predicted in a poll three months ago. The 2026 estimate rose to $3,400 from $3,000.
Spot gold prices are up 27% so far this year after hitting a record $3,500 per ounce in April with the U.S. and China in the midst of a full-blown trade war, triggering regular forays into safe-haven assets.
"The first half of 2025 confirmed what many of us have long believed. Gold is not just a hedge. It is a signal," said David Russell at GoldCore, calling $4,000 a realistic target by end-2026 should worries about the U.S. fiscal situation deepen further.
Uncertainty over looming trade deadlines with key U.S. partners has bolstered safe-haven gold's appeal, while fiscal concerns got inflated by the passage of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which nonpartisan analysts expect to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt.
