Goldman Sachs late on Sunday raised its 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude oil to $85 per barrel (bbl) from $77, while raising its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $79/bbl from $72.
The bank expects extended disruptions to crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and increased strategic stockpiling to drive the market into a tighter and more risk‑averse posture.
Goldman also expects Brent to average $110/bbl in March and April, up from a prior forecast of $98, as traders attach a growing risk premium amid uncertainty over how long supply disruptions will last.
The price when uncertainty peaks may be $135/bbl if the market required a risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction offsetting supply destruction over six months in a risk scenario of 10 weeks of very low flows and (2 million barrels a day) of persistent production losses," Goldman said in a note.
The bank outlined two upside risk factors to its forecasts: One where a prolonged Hormuz disruption pushes Brent past its 2008 peak and another where a sustained 2 million barrels per day supply loss in Mideast production leads to a spike in prices.
Meanwhile, a potential end to U.S. military action in the region could quickly erode the risk premium, while Washington's possible consideration of oil-export restrictions could widen the Brent–WTI price gap further, Goldman said.
