The impact of the war in the Middle East on Georgia’s residential real estate market will largely depend on the conflict’s duration and scale.
If the conflict proves short-lived, the effect in 2026 could be slightly more positive than assumed in the pre-conflict baseline. This would mainly reflect the possibility of stronger migration related demand from the Middle East, which could support rents and to some extent, housing demand.
If, however, the conflict persists and regional risks remain elevated, the balance of effects would likely turn negative. Prolonged uncertainty could weaken buyer confidence, delay purchase decisions and reduce demand, putting pressure on both apartment sales and price growth. In a more adverse scenario, this could lead to a decline in transaction volumes and sale prices.
“Before the conflict, apartment sales were projected to rise by 1.4% this year, reaching 79,600 units. However, if the conflict is resolved in the short term, the forecast is for a 2% increase, totaling 80,100 units.
"Annually, before the conflict, the average selling price rose by 2.6%, reaching 1317per square meter. If the conflict is settled quickly, a price is expected to hike by 3.2 % to 1325 per square meter)" TBC Capital review reads.
