A report by Hedgepoint Global Markets analyzes coffee futures prices, which have been trending upwards due to growing uncertainties about global supply. On Monday (25), Arabica futures reached the 311,25 cents/lb mark in the morning, a new record for the contract.
In Brazil, the main concern is the 25/26 harvest, which may have reduced production due to adverse weather conditions, such as drought and high temperatures.
"Although our estimates on conilon production for the period, in relation to 24/25, project an increase of 12,2%, reaching 22,6 million bags, the arabica harvest may show a drop of 1,4%, totaling 42,6 million bags", says Laleska Moda, Coffee analyst at Hedgepoint.
“Initially, we estimated the total supply of coffee in the country at 65,2 million bags, an increase of 2,9% compared to the previous harvest, of 63,4 million bags, but future weather conditions may change our projections”, notes the analyst.
The USDA also revised its 24/25 crop estimate last week, indicating a reduction in production of 3,5 million bags compared to the first estimate, a decrease of more than 2 million bags in stocks, falling to just 1,2 million bags by the end of the cycle.
The 24/25 harvest has seen a strong export pace, which should reduce Brazilian stocks to historically low levels. By October, 70% of the harvest had already been sold, with Robusta reaching 76% and Arabica 67%.
