International economic analyst Gogita Suramelashvili analyzes trends in the Russian economy and publishes a post on social media.
According to him, based on data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, in 2025, Russian state-owned banks became the largest recipients of funding from the National Wealth Fund (NWF).
During 2025, banks obtained 1.02 trillion rubles from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) constituting over 90% of the fund's total investment expenses which totaled about 1.1 trillion rubles. "From this total amount, NWF Bank, which finances various state-backed projects, received 407 billion rubles. VTB received 293 billion rubles, Gazprombank 196 billion rubles, Sberbank 94 billion rubles, and Sovcombank (the sole commercial bank benefiting from the fund) 30 billion rubles."
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), a state-run agency, warned in October 2025 about the threat of a banking crisis. They forecasted that such a crisis is highly probable in the latter half of 2026. Problematic debt reached 10.4 trillion rubles by the end of the third quarter of 2025, as per CMASF. CMASF points out that banking statistics fail to show the complete scope of the problem, since a considerable amount of bad debts are hidden through restructuring.
CMASF warned that "a crisis of non-performing loans might hit the corporate sector in the third or fourth quarter of 2026," Suramelashvili wrote.