Georgia ends 2023 with single-digit economic growth. Despite the risk of recession in the global economy, the current year was not so bad for Georgia, as almost all international financial organizations recognize.
However, the year 2024 will be full of challenges and surprises for the world. The ongoing wars are still unresolved, US-China relations are strained, the West is facing the threat of recession amid record high inflation and tightened monetary policy. Given all this, international and local financial institutions assume that next year Georgia’s economy will grow from 4.8% to 5.2%.
Government forecast — 5.2%
According to the official forecast of the government, a real economic growth of 5.2% is planned in 2024, the country's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 8.4%, as the prices of goods and services will increase along with the economic growth.
National Bank of Georgia - 5%
According to the basic macroeconomic scenario of the National Bank, Georgia’s economy will grow by 5% in 2024, by 4.5% in 2025, and by 5% in 2026.
"In the coming years, amid mitigating migration flows and gradual normalization of monetary policy, Georgia's economy will grow at its potential. In the wake of maintaining a stable macroeconomic situation in the country, unemployment is gradually falling," NBG states.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) — 4.8%
IMF predicts that Georgia’s economy will grow by 6.2% in 2023, by 4.8% in 2024.
World Bank (WB) — 5%
As per the World Bank, this year the country will have 4.4% economic growth. As for the economic growth forecast for 2024, Georgia's economy will grow by 5% in 2024-2025.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) — 5%
Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts 5% growth for Georgia’s economy in 2024. As for the current year, the financial institution improved its April forecast by 1.5 percentage points and expects a 6% growth.
Galt&Taggart — 5%
According to the forecast of Galt & Taggart, the country's leading investment bank, Georgia's economy will grow by 6.8% in 2023, by 5%- in 2024.
ISET - 2.7% (in the first quarter of 2024)
The ISET Research Institute has updated its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. According to their estimates, GDP will be 6.2% in the fourth quarter, 2.7%- in the first quarter of 2024.
