The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its 2025 global trade growth forecast to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August, but warned of a slowing growth for 2026, according to the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report Tuesday.
"Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world," it said.
A 2.4% growth in the global trade this year would be below the 2024 level of 2.8%.
Meanwhile, the global trade forecast for 2026 was lowered to 0.5% from 1.8%. The downward revision indicated that the effect of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, at varying levels by country and sector, may be shifted to 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that countries' measured response to tariff changes, the growth potential of artificial intelligence and increased trade, particularly among developing countries, have helped mitigate trade disruptions.
