Oil prices have climbed to $110 per barrel amid uncertainty in US-Iran talks, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, up slightly from previous levels. The WTI Crude Oil April 2026 market is also active, with traders eyeing a potential 15% increase in likelihood given current volatility.
The rise to $110 follows the Strait of Hormuz closure, which affects 20% of global oil flows. The all-time high contract has traded $2,513 in USDC over the last 24 hours, making it a thin market. The largest price move was a 1-point spike during early morning trading, suggesting even small trades can shift the contract price at this volume level.
The market predicting oil prices to hit $90 by end of June is less informative given that the current price already exceeds that threshold, but it reflects a broader expectation of sustained high prices as geopolitical tensions persist. The odds of an all-time high remain low at 0.5%, showing trader skepticism about a rapid move beyond $120 even with the Hormuz disruption.
