Initial consolidated figures from Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, show detections of irregular border crossings at the EU’s external borders fell by over one-quarter (26%) in 2025 to almost 178 000. This is less than half the total recorded in 2023 and the lowest level since 2021.
The decrease is a significant development, yet Frontex warns that the situation at Europe’s borders remains uncertain. Migration pressure can shift quickly between routes, shaped by conflict, instability and smuggling networks. The European Union is also already coping with attempts by hostile actors to exploit migration flows to put pressure on the EU’s external borders.
Looking ahead, 2026 will be a pivotal year for European border management. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum will become fully applicable in June, marking the most far-reaching reform of Europe’s migration and asylum system in years. This will coincide with major changes to European border management, including the full rollout of the Entry/Exit System (EES) and the planned launch of the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) later in the year.
If there is no major geopolitical escalation in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood, irregular migration towards Europe across land and sea borders could continue the downward trend seen since 2023. This will depend on sustained cooperation with countries of origin and transit, and on Europe’s ability to stay ready for sudden shifts.
