In the opinion of financier Vasil Revishvili, Georgia's relative inflation slowdown in November stems from several factors, including global market conditions and the lari's relative strengthening.
According to official data, annual inflation stood at 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from October, but still above the National Bank of Georgia’s 3% target.
"The slowdown in inflation can be explained, as, first and foremost, oil product prices have significantly decreased. On the other hand, again due to the relative weakness of the dollar or the inflow of foreign currency, the lari has strengthened against the dollar, which, of course, has led to a slowdown in inflation," Revishvili points out.
The financier also thinks that the National Bank won't be able to cut the refinancing rate anytime soon.
"I don't think the refinancing rate will be lowered. It will likely remain at its current level or be close to it, at least in the first half of 2026."
"The main argument in favor of this could be the current inflation rate, as the inflation target is 3%, and the second argument is the lari’s exchange rate. The [National Bank] is happy with the lari’s relative stability, due to our import focus and as dollarization continues to be a major factor in our external debt. So, I don't see a high probability of a significant [refinancing rate] cut in the near future ," Vasil Revishvili notes.
