The race for the White House rests on a razor’s edge in the final nationwide CNN poll before votes are counted. The poll, conducted by SSRS, finds 47% of likely voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and an equal 47% support former President Donald Trump.
CNN polling has found a tight race throughout the short campaign between Harris and Trump. In September, likely voters split 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump, nearly identical to the new poll, and a poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race over the summer and threw his support behind Harris found 49% of registered voters behind Trump, with 46% backing Harris.
Trump has never trailed outside the margin of error in CNN’s polling on this year’s presidential contest against either Harris or Biden, a stark departure from his previous two runs for the presidency.
The race has been remarkably stable throughout this tumultuous political year. The poll finds that 85% of likely voters who’ve made a choice say they knew which party they would support in the presidential election all along, and just 15% say they changed their minds along the way. As of now, even more than that are fully locked in: A scant 2% of all likely voters say they haven’t yet chosen a candidate, and another 9% say that they could change their minds before casting a ballot.
Those voters who say their choices are locked in now split 50% Harris to 49% Trump, with just 1% supporting other candidates. Those who could change tilt toward Trump and are much more likely than decided voters to be backers of minor-party and independent candidates (38% support Trump, 31% Harris, 30% someone else). They are also much less motivated to vote than those who’ve made a decision. While 70% of likely voters who say their minds are made up say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, that drops to just 27% among those who could change their minds.
Harris has likely banked more votes than Trump so far, given Democrats’ higher propensity to vote early or by mail, according to the poll. The poll was fielded October 20-23, after early and absentee voting was well underway across the country, and found the 20% of likely voters who say they have already cast their ballots break 61% Harris to 36% Trump, while those who say they haven’t yet voted break in Trump’s favor, 50% to 44%.
