The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 unchanged, signaling confidence in a solid underlying demand despite the current build-up in global oil inventories. According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, oil consumption is expected to rise by 1.30 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 105.14 mb/d in 2025 and further increase by 1.38 mb/d to 106.52 mb/d in 2026. This marks the fourth consecutive month OPEC has held its demand outlook steady, reflecting its methodical approach amidst market volatility.
OPEC also highlighted that global oil inventories have been rising substantially this year, with stock builds totaling approximately 304 million barrels between January and September 2025. This accumulation is viewed by the cartel as a result of coordinated supply management strategies rather than fundamental weakness in the oil demand. The group is balancing supply against demand prudently, aiming for a market rebalancing by mid-2026 as demand growth gradually absorbs excess inventories.
In October 2025, OPEC+ crude production amounted to around 43.02 mb/d, including output from Mexico, with a slight month-over-month decrease of 73,000 b/d. The market call for OPEC+ crude for 2025 stands at approximately 42.4 mb/d, slightly below current production, indicating a supply surplus of about 620,000 b/d. However, projections for 2026 suggest a modest demand increase where OPEC+ production is expected to average 43.0 mb/d, nearly matching the market call and fostering hopes of a supply-demand equilibrium by the second quarter of 2026.
OPEC’s sustained demand outlook takes into account resilient economic activity across key sectors driving oil consumption. This includes ongoing industrial growth in emerging markets, rising transportation fuel needs fueled by expanding vehicle fleets, growing petrochemical feedstock requirements, and increased heating and power generation demand in various regions.
