Bankers predict that global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deal volumes will surpass $4 trillion in 2025, the highest in four years, fueled by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises of deregulation, lower corporate taxes, and a pro-business stance. As of December 19, total M&A value reached $3.45 trillion, a 15% increase from last year, recovering from a decade-low of $3 trillion in 2023.
Trump’s election is expected to lead to a more favorable antitrust enforcement environment, encouraging corporate tie-ups that were stalled during the Biden administration. The appointment of Andrew Ferguson as head of the Federal Trade Commission is seen as a move that could ease regulatory barriers to large mergers.
In the U.S., M&A volumes climbed 10% to $1.55 trillion in 2024, while Europe and Asia Pacific experienced growth of 22% and 11%, respectively. Private equity firms are also expected to benefit from recent interest rate cuts, an improved financing environment, and a resurgence in initial public offerings (IPOs), allowing them to monetize large portfolio companies.
Leveraged buyout (LBO) volumes soared by 35% to $600.8 billion, driven by firms like Blackstone and Silver Lake securing major acquisitions, such as Blackstone’s $16 billion deal for AirTrunk and Silver Lake’s $13 billion takeover of Endeavor Group.
Despite optimistic forecasts, some investment bankers remain cautious, warning that planned tariffs under Trump’s presidency could lead to inflationary pressures, affecting the broader economy. Nevertheless, the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings is improving, and cross-border M&A activity is expected to rise as foreign buyers target U.S. companies.
The technology sector, accounting for over $534 billion in global M&A activity this year, remains a key area of focus, with a growing appetite for large, transformational deals. As deal volumes approach pre-pandemic levels, dealmakers are gearing up for an anticipated surge in transactions as 2025 unfolds.
