The number of air travellers across the globe is expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026, while airlines are projected to fill more seats, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Dec 9.
The 5.2 billion passengers forecast to take to the skies in 2026 represent a 4.4 per cent increase from the 4.99 billion air travellers projected for 2025, the airline industry body said at its global media day in Geneva, Switzerland.
IATA had said in June that the forecast was below the previous projection of 5.22 billion passengers for 2025, but it will still be a record high.
The average return airfare is projected to rise slightly to US$402 (S$520) in 2026, from the estimated US$400 in 2025, said IATA.
On the whole, average return airfares in 2026 are forecast to be 36.8 per cent lower than 2015 levels.
Airlines are expected to fill a record high of 83.8 per cent of all seats in the coming year, on the back of a shortage of new aircraft.
In the Asia-Pacific – the largest market globally – passenger load factors are projected to reach an all-time high of 84.4 per cent despite a slower recovery in international traffic, said IATA at the yearly briefing in its Geneva office attended by more than 100 journalists from around the world.
The association represents about 360 airlines – including home-grown carriers Singapore Airlines and Scoot – that account for more than 80 per cent of global air traffic.
Demand in the Asia-Pacific will continue to be robust in the coming year.
It is forecast to rise by 7.3 per cent, in part due to the easing of visa requirements for Chinese group tours to South Korea, as well as visitors to China. This is expected to stimulate short-term inbound demand – particularly during peak holiday periods.
However, IATA noted that restrictions on flights between the United States and China continue to limit market access, with scheduled services currently set at about 100 round-trip flights a week, down from over 150 before 2020.
Meanwhile, airlines’ revenue from ticketing is expected to rise to US$751 billion in 2026, up 4.8 per cent from US$716 billion in 2025.
The growth will be mainly driven by a 4.9 per cent increase in passenger demand, which is measured by revenue passenger kilometres, or the volume carried by airlines.
On the whole, the industry is projected to rake in a net profit of US$41 billion in 2026, up from US$39.5 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 3.9 per cent.
This is “extremely welcome news”, considering the headwinds facing the industry, such as rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain and geopolitical conflict, said IATA director-general Willie Walsh.
Total revenues across the airline industry are expected to reach US$1.05 trillion, outpacing growth in operating expenses and rising 4.5 per cent from the US$1.008 trillion expected in 2025.
But Mr Walsh noted that collectively, the airline industry does not generate earnings that cover its cost of capital, which “remains an issue to be resolved”.
The average net profit from every passenger flown is expected to come in at US$7.90 in 2026, below the high of US$8.50 in 2023.
