August growth came in at 5.8%, being 0.3 percentage points lower than what our latest around 7% baseline for the full year 2023 would imply. On the other hand, September non-cash spending points to some acceleration YoY, though probably only an up-to-7% real increase in economic activity in the remaining months looks more precise. From the expenditure side, in the second quarter, net exports remained a major engine of growth. We note the negative contribution of an investment component, however, after a rather high base effect- TBC Capital weekly update reads .
On the interventions side, the NBG August net purchases saw a normalization, though remained high at 110 million USD. We stick to our view, that it will take a large shock for net inflows to cause the central bank to shift sizably on the selling side. At the same time, we also note that in the same month, the GEL credit was stronger, often being the GEL exchange rate negative. However, on the deposits side, the higher larization is evident also in September, based on a daily data, contrary to our perception related to the shifts in sentiments.
