The prospects of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia are weakening Russia’s influence
According to The Economist, Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is waning, with two out of the three states in the region experiencing a significant decline in its influence. This shift is happening despite Russia's efforts to maintain control through pressure and its perceived sphere of influence.
Several factors are contributing to this decline:
Armenia's Reassessment:
The war in Ukraine has caused Armenia to re-evaluate its reliance on Russia as its key partner.
Azerbaijan's Ties with Turkey:
Azerbaijan is strengthening its ties with Turkey, further diminishing Russia's influence.
Georgia's Drift:
Georgia is also moving away from Russia's sphere of influence.
Russia's Preoccupation with Ukraine:
Russia's focus on the war in Ukraine has diverted its attention and resources from the Caucasus, allowing other actors to gain influence.
Evolving Regional Dynamics:
The changing geopolitical landscape, particularly the weakening of Russia's role as the region's main military power, is creating opportunities for other regional and extra-regional powers to increase their influence.
While Russia still maintains considerable influence, it is increasingly constrained in imposing its will on the region. The situation in the South Caucasus is becoming more complex, with a potential for renewed conflict due to unresolved issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
