According to the preliminary foreign trade data, Georgia's exports in February 2025 dipped 7% compared to January and amounted to $431.5 million. Leading economist at the ISET Research Institute David Keshelava told Commersant that the situation will become a problem if this trend continues and exports keep on declining in the coming months.
According to him, the current data are not alarming and the decline should not be considered dramatic.
David Keshelava says that prediction is difficult as well as to say what impact a decline in exports will have in the future.
"If we compare the data for January-February with the same data for the previous year, exports have decreased by about 4%, including re-exports. This is not only domestic exports. We do not yet have detailed data for February by components. The data for January show an increase in exports in January. The decrease in the total export data for two months is due to February. I can tell you that the growth rate in January was mainly caused by three components.
One of them was the export of cars, which became an important component of exports. The second important reason for the growth was the alcoholic beverages export, although it is more interesting to consider exports and imports together, as well as the trade balance. The trade balance worsened in January and February. It is partly explained by a one-time significant increase in imports of expensive paintings. This will affect imports only once and will not affect the data for subsequent months. If we look at the data of previous years, there are cases when a failure occurs for one or two months, and then everything is restored.
"Therefore, it is better to draw conclusions after some time, rather than generalize the future forecast based on one month," says David Keshelava.
The economist talks about the country's trade deficit growing in recent years that is partially balanced by remittances.
The leading economist at the ISET Research Institute claims that the sanctions imposed on Russia have allowed Georgian businessmen to sell their products on the Russian market that increased dependence on Russia. According to the economist, the more dependent we become on Russia, the more vulnerable the Georgian economy will become to shocks.
,,If tensions with the West continue, the EU's share in exports and imports could fall further and we could become more dependent on Russia or neighboring countries that is risky. These countries often experience crises due to political instability. The more dependent we become on Russia, the more vulnerable the Georgian economy becomes to shocks.
We may face significant problems in the long term. For example, we cannot use the potential of the transition from a raw materials exporting country to exporting more other products and involving in other chains. This will become even more difficult amid political crisis and tension, as well as worsening relations with the West. The second problem is diversification. “We are becoming increasingly dependent on Russia and neighboring countries, which makes our economy vulnerable,” David Keshelava points out.
