Former US Army Europe commander Ben Hodges has said that to liberate occupied Crimea, Ukraine would need to isolate the peninsula and make it impossible for Russian forces to remain there.
"It sounds a bit simplistic, but the first phase … leading up to the liberation of Crimea is to isolate it, cut off the road to Dzhankoy, and destroy the bridge. The second is to render it unusable, impossible for the Russians to use."
He said Ukraine is currently capable of striking targets across Crimea with high-precision weapons. He argued that Ukraine should therefore continue attacks on military infrastructure on the peninsula, including air bases, the remnants of the Black Sea Fleet, logistics facilities and other sites, to demonstrate to Russia that it cannot sustain its presence there and gains no real benefit from Crimea.
Hodges once again emphasised the importance of severing supply routes to Crimea, repeating that the road to Dzhankoi and the Kerch Bridge are both key. He said the bridge has significant psychological value and noted that it has already sustained damage and is "full of holes" in some sections, leaving it vulnerable.
He further remarked that as long as the bridge remains standing, it will continue to hinder Ukraine's ability to access the Sea of Azov even after any future peace agreement. For this reason, he suggested that the bridge would eventually have to be destroyed.
Meanwhile, he acknowledged that forcing Russia to withdraw from Crimea would take considerable time and would be significantly more difficult.
In his view, it would be achieved through a broader effort involving long-range precision strikes against Russia's oil and gas infrastructure.
"Crimea is the most critical location, the focal point of this war. And whichever side controls Crimea will win the war. I cannot imagine an end to the war or the achievement of long-term, sustainable peace if Russia continues to control Crimea," Hodges said.
He explained that Ukraine would be unable to reach the Sea of Azov or rebuild cities such as Mariupol and Berdiansk as long as Russia holds Crimea.
"And, of course, Russia could still disrupt shipping from Odesa or Mykolaiv, for example. So the issue of Crimea must be resolved," Hodges said.
