Kaja Kallas, the current prime minister of Estonia, has won the backing of the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom to become the next secretary general of NATO, becoming the first woman and the first from eastern and central Europe to lead the alliance.

Until recently, the favourite to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as the NATO secretary general was the outgoing Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, but Kallas appears to have won over the Germans and Americans, who had a change of heart.

It is understood that Rutte was disqualified because of the Netherlands’ dismal record on defence spending. “What moral credibility does this guy have?” Toomas Hendrik Ilves, a former Estonian president, said recently, referring to the Netherlands’ failure to meet its NATO commitment to spend two per cent of GDP on defence during Rutte’s 13 years as prime minister.

Kallas has been touted as a potential successor to Jens Stoltenberg since 2022, when her strong support for Ukraine and analytical statements on Russia made her stand out in the international media. Estonia has increased its defence spending to three per cent of GDP for 2024-2027 and is one of the largest per capita donors to Ukraine.