According to the baseline scenario, the Georgian economy will continue to grow at a stable rate this year. Georgian economy in 2023 will grow by 5%, inflation will stand at 2.8%, the similar economic growth is expected to be in 2024-2025.
As for the pessimistic scenario for 2023, GDP will grow 3%, according to the optimistic one — by 7.5%.
“According to the baseline scenario based on the forecast in the May 2023 Monetary Policy Report, the Georgian economy will continue to steadily grow in 2023. In the following years, the Georgian economy will continue to grow amid an increased migration flows and the recovery of the economies of the trading partner countries. As the macroeconomic situation stabilizes, the unemployment rate in the country will also decrease," the report says.
According to the NBG baseline forecast, the average inflation rate in Georgia will be 2.8% in 2023, 3.2% - in 2024 and 3.3% - in 2025. In the optimistic scenario of 2024, inflation will stand at 5%, according to the pessimistic scenario - 3%.
“In the baseline scenario, inflation will be below the target of 3% largely due to lower prices for energy and food products on the global market, the exchange rate’s strengthening and monetary policy tightening,” the regulator states.
It’s worth mentioning that, despite the decline in the overall inflation, local inflation stays high mainly due to rising prices in the service sector.
