The FMCG market grew by 6.8% y/y to GEL 22.7bn in 2024. As expected, branded retail chains grew at a higher rate than other formats. Branded retail chains revenues increased by 14.9% y/y to GEL 9.2bn, while other formats grew by 1.9% y/y to GEL 13.5bn in 2024 . As a result, the share of branded chains increased from 37.6% to 40.4% over 2023-24 - Galt&Taggart review reads.
The growth in branded chain revenue was mainly driven by geographic expansion. In 2024, c. 500 new stores were opened by branded retail chain companies, out of which c.350 were in regions, the rest in Tbilisi. As a result, number of stores in Tbilisi and regions became equal. Revenues of branded retail chains in the regions increased by 23.6% y/y, and in Tbilisi by 9.3% y/y resulting in slight decrease in Tbilisi’s share in total branded retail chains revenue from 58.9% in 2023 to 57.8% in 2024. We expect the high rate of expansion in the regions to continue in the future. According to our estimates, the most attractive regions for expansion are Adjara and Kvemo Kartli, and among the districts of Tbilisi, Saburtalo, Gldani, and Samgori.
We expect FMCG sector revenue to grow at an average rate of 8.0% over 2025-28, primarily driven by increased disposable income and purchasing power. Branded retail chains will continue to expand at a faster pace than other formats, supported by geographic expansion, assortment and format diversification, and other strategic developments. We forecast an average annual growth rate of 15.0% for branded retail chains over 2025-28 (compared to 23.3% growth over 2021-24), which will result in their market share increasing from 40.4% in 2025 to 52.0% by 2028.
