US-China trade agreement is significantly damaging to the EU
recent Phase I agreement between the US and China will have a significant
negative impact on EU exports of goods. It will probably cost the EU around USD
11 billion in exports to China. Among the EU countries, Germany is particularly
affected, and among the sectors, especially aircraft and vehicle manufacturing.
a global perspective, the agreement will also lead to massive market share
reallocations according to the scenario calculations. In percentage terms, the
US would see its exports to China go up by about 48 percent relative to the
undistorted 2021 benchmark, while the EU and other countries would, on average,
lose 5 percent.
The largest market shifts would occur in the
energy sector, where Chinese imports from the US would be 326 percent higher.
In the agricultural area, the US market share of Chinese imports will be 25
percent instead of 18 percent. Other energy and agricultural exporters in the
world will bear the negative consequences.