TBC Weekly Update from the Chief Economist

TBC Weekly Update from the Chief Economist

access_time2022-09-26 13:20:22

August exports, imports, construction materials prices and PPI indices continue to moderate once again supporting the view on low inflation outlook. At the same time, the drop in real exports is not something we had incorporated in our nowcasting model with implied double digit growth in the same month.

On the international side, the recent dollar strength is also beyond our expectations, however, more medium term indicators still point to a greenback weakness. Furthermore, the additional inflow of migrants to Georgia from Russia due to the announcement of the partial mobilization is a GEL supportive, though, once again, unless the dollar weakens worldwide, we stick to our view, that any further FX surplus will result in higher central bank reserves, rather than a stronger GEL.


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