TBC Capital weekly update from the chief economist

TBC Capital weekly update from the chief economist

access_time2022-08-01 12:25:21

June growth estimate came in at 7.2% YoY and negative, -5.5% MoM in seasonally adjusted terms. The slowdown was well expected as if the real GDP adjusted for the seasonality would stay at May level through the remaining part of the year, the growth for the full year 2022 would reach as high as 15.7%. Nevertheless, the cooling was stronger than our 12.2% scenario would imply. In any case, this is another argument, combined with other indicators, that despite the above 10 percent outlook also this year, the overheating in the economy is still difficult to verify. Shortly this week we will publish the thematic insight on this topic.

 Last week, June rates on loans and deposits also became available. In line with our expectations (slide 34), despite continuation of the tightening in the US, there is very limited pass through on the local deposit market. Furthermore, the USD deposit rates even declined somewhat and when looking at the banking system’s FC liquidity ratio, combined with the Larisation being a priority also expressed in the higher FC and LC spread differential, one could argue that at least this year there won’t be any pass through at all, unlike declined share of non-residents in the GEL Treasury securities likely primarily driven by the higher USD benchmark yield.

As for the continuous strengthening of the GEL, the strong net inflows are consistent with our expectations, but we were and in fact are still betting on more NBG interventions being consistent with our view on the GEL rates on Wednesday the NBG to leave the policy stance unchanged followed by the easing starting from the end of the year.



თეგები:
commersant



AIR ASTANA RECEIVES SKYTRAX BEST AIRLINE IN CENTRAL ASIA & CIS AWARD FOR THE TENTH TIME

AIR ASTANA RECEIVES SKYTRAX BEST AIRLINE IN CENTRAL ASIA & CIS AWARD FOR THE TENTH TIME
access_time2022-09-23 20:10:00
Air Astana, Kazakhstan’s flag carrier, has received prestigious Skytrax awards for “Best Airline in Central Asia and CIS” for the tenth time and “Best Service in Central Asia and CIS” for the first time. Awards were presented to all winners at a Skytrax Awards ceremony in London today. “Since it was launched 20 years ago, Air Astana steadily built a reputation for safety, efficiency and outstanding customer service. We are once again honoured to receive awards from...

Why does Vladikavkaz restrict movement in the direction of the Georgian border?

Why does Vladikavkaz restrict movement in the direction of the Georgian border?
access_time2022-09-23 17:15:46
In Vladikavkaz, due to the large number of people who want to leave Russia, movement in the direction of the Georgian border has been restricted,...

Japan Intervenes to Support Yen for the First Time Since 1998

Japan Intervenes to Support Yen for the First Time Since 1998
access_time2022-09-23 13:20:25
Japan intervened to strengthen the yen for the first time since the late 1990s on Thursday, after the currency tumbled to a 24-year low on pledges by...

7%, 10% or 11% - how much will the inflation rate be at the end of the year

7%, 10% or 11% - how much will the inflation rate be at the end of the year
access_time2022-09-23 12:39:06
The Asian Development Bank (АDB) has raised the inflation forecast for  Georgia in 2022 to 11%, in 2023 annual inflation is expected to be...

WHO warns ability to identify new Covid variants is diminishing as testing declines

WHO warns ability to identify new Covid variants is diminishing as testing declines
access_time2022-09-23 08:00:02
The World Health Organization on Thursday warned that it is struggling to identify and track new Covid variants as governments roll back testing and surveillance, threatening the progress made in the...


Similar News

up