Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA), in an analysis published Monday in global newspapers such as “El Economista,” acknowledges that a barrel of Brent crude could exceed $100 a barrel this winter.
In addition to the possibility of cold weather, a sudden slowdown in supply (from oil producers) in response to the increased demand for oil resulting from the economic recovery must be added. Oil producing companies are delaying their investment decisions in the face of a somewhat uncertain future, as developed governments plan to reduce polluting energies in favor of renewable energies.
The US bank report confirms that in the base scenario (most likely), the price of Brent crude will range between $70 and $75 by the end of the year, but it recognizes that it sees “increased upward risks”.
In line with this vision (70 or 75 dollars), we expect a deficit [oferta menor que a procura] In the coming months, oil prices are supposed to support by the end of the year. However, a new wave of Covid-19, a tantrum in the markets, a debt crisis in China or the return of Iranian oil barrels, may cause oil to fall.
In fact, climate is fast becoming the most important driver of energy markets. If the winter is colder than usual, global oil demand could rise by another 1 to 2 million barrels per day. In this scenario, the oil market deficit this winter could easily exceed 2 million barrels per day and reach our projected target of $100 per barrel,” say analysts at the US bank.
A barrel of Brent crude, the reference in Europe, rose today by 1.06% to $ 73.69, while West Texas crude in the United States rose 1.41% to $ 70.70.
Oil prices received a strong ‘push’ in Monday’s session, on the one hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects that the global thirst for oil will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022, thanks to better vaccination rates and increased public confidence in the management of the Covid epidemic 19 by governments, which will catalyze the recovery of mobility, both nationally and internationally.
In its monthly report, OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand for 2022 by about one million barrels per day to 100.8 barrels per day, the highest demand since 2019 when it was at 100.3 million barrels of oil. Thus, OPEC believes that the demand for black gold will recover above expectations within six months, which may act as an additional boost to the price of oil.
In August, daily OPEC production increased by 151,000 barrels to a total of 26.76 million barrels per day.
Oil futures celebrate the upbeat OPEC and Bank of Canada forecasts, with gains close to 2% for Brent, a reference in Europe, and for West Texas, a reference in the United States.